HORSES-SATURDAY 11APR09

At the Gate -

SaturdayApril 11, 2009

It is now or never for several three year olds, as they will attempt to race their way into the Kentucky Derby with a strong performance in today’s Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) or the Arkansas Derby (G2) this afternoon.

Also with a vested interest in today’s results are the connections of the Florida Derby runner up Dunkirk, who is sitting at 21st on the graded earnings list.

Horseplayers that backed Dunkirk in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager will also watch today’s Derby preps with great interest.

The colt closed at 11/1 in the final pool.

It would be a shame if the promising colt was excluded from running on the first Saturday of May, and it sure looks like that might happen.

Here is a breakdown of the bubble boys going into Saturday’s races:

19. Papa Clem $160,000
20. Charitable Man $150,000
21. Dunkirk $150,000
22. Mine That Bird $138,705
23. Theregoesjojo $133,063
24. General Quarters $130,645

The list may change drastically by Saturday evening, and I am sure Churchill Downs officials are hoping Dunkirk can sneak into the race.

If not, we will have several weeks to talk about how idiotic it is to use graded stakes earnings to determine the Derby starters.

To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct, Keeneland, and my Multi-Track Report that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.

Here is today's opener from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:

KEE Race 1 Clm $16,000 (1:05 et)
#2 Beau's Valentine 7/2
#3 Mylilmoneymaker 2/1
#1 Zephyr Ice 5/1
#5 Reachforthecastle 6/1

Analysis: #2 Beau's Valentine is returning off a two-month break after a third place finish versus $17.5K foes in a race taken off the turf at Fair Grounds. The winner of the race came back to finish third against $30K foes while the runner up ran second versus $20K claimers in her next start. This filly used to have some zip, finishing third in the G3 Miss Preakness last May. She makes her second start for the Flint barn and perhaps the freshening will bring her back to her game.

#3 Mylilmoneymaker dueled for the early lead and drew off late while drifting out against waiver claiming company. She has won 7 of her 21 career starts and comes in here sporting the top last out speed fig by a good margin. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and she does have a win over poly in three tries.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 1,2,3,5
TRI: 2,3 / 1,2,3,5 / 1,2,3,5,8

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 9 Comely S. G2 (4:50 et)
#2 Don't Forget Gil 5/2
#4 Laragh 2/1
#5 Dream Play 9/5
#6 Holdontoyourdream 8/1

Analysis: #2 Don't Forget Gil returns from Florida where last out the filly was a sharp winner at Tampa in the G3 Florida Oaks, earning a career top speed fig in the victory. The filly has a couple of sharp works since her last outing and she looks like a one turn mile will fit her well.

#4 Laragh went gate to wire to win the G1 Hollywood Starlet last December and makes her three year old debut here for the Terranova barn and IEAH. She has won 3 of 6 in her career but this will be her first go on real dirt. The filly has a couple of decent looking morning drills at Belmont. The barn is 27% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. She is a very talented filly although the price is going to be on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,5
TRI: no play

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 9 Blue Grass Stakes G1 (5:15 et)

#1 Patena 10/1
#3 Theregoesjojo 7/2
#9 Charitable Man 4/1
#10 Hold Me Back 3/1

Analysis: #1 Patena made his first start for IEAH and Dutrow last out in the G2 Louisiana Derby and I was expecting to see a solid effort. Instead, the colt was never a threat, stalking the early pace and tiring to finish a well beaten eighth. The colt was coming off a two-month break and caught a sloppy surface, but the colt is bred to the hilt to handle a wet track. He is by Seeking the Gold out of the stakes winning A.P. Indy mare Handpainted ($435K). Perhaps the return to poly will turn this guy around; both of his wins came over the surface at Woodbine. Albarado has enough faith to stick and I have to believe this colt is going to bounce back with a much better effort. The 10/1 ML looks more than fair.

#3 Theregoesjojo was my top pick in the G1 Florida Derby and Kent found himself sandwiched between foes in upper stretch and faded after having to check to avoid the duo. The colt earned a career top speed fig two back in a good effort in his runner up finish in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Kent departs to ride our fourth choice and I am not heartbroken after his last ride on this colt.

#9 Charitable Man is making his three year olds debut here for the McLaughlin barn that is 21% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. The colt is 2 for 2 in his career, capping off his two year old campaign by winning the G2 Futurity and he beat Friesen Fire, who went on to win the G3 Risen Star and G2 Louisiana Derby in his two most recent starts. The colt is working as if he is ready to fire a good effort here today.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,9,10
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,9,10 / 1,2,3,8,9,10

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park:

OP Race 11 Arkansas Derby G2 (5:41 ct)

#10 Danger to Society 6/1
#2 Papa Clem 6/1
#8 Old Fashioned 9/5
#9 Win Willy 7/2

Analysis: #10 Danger to Society is making his first start since failing to fire as the 9/5 favorite in the G3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park in his stakes debut. The son of Harlan’s Holiday was impressive breaking his maiden in his debut last fall at Churchill Downs and then trouncing a first level allowance field at Gulfstream. Originally pointed toward the Florida Derby, the colt lands here with a new trainer and a new jockey. The Dutrow barn is 29% winners with newcomers to the barn and I have to think this guy is going to bounce back with a better effort here.

#2 Papa Clem set the early fractions but was no match for Friesen Fire in the sloppy stretch at Fair Grounds in the G2 Louisiana Derby, beaten 7 ¼ lengths for the top spot. Two back the colt was a solid second in the G2 Robert B. Lewis in his stakes debut. The winner of that race was Pioneerof the Nile, who won the G2 San Felipe and the G1 Santa Anita Derby in his next two starts. Third place finisher I Want Revenge came back to win the G3 Gotham and the G1 Wood in his next two starts. There is not much early speed in here and this guy is the logical runner to take advantage of the pace scenario.

#8 Old Fashioned was the beaten chalk in the G2 Rebel, his first loss in five career starts. Tough whether to think this guy just had an off day or if the rest of the crop is catching up to this guy. Ramon is off and Thompson, who rode the colt in his first two career starts. Jones is looking Derby with this guy and seems likely to have the jock take him back off the pace today, which might school him nicely for Churchill Downs but could get him beat here.

Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 2,10 / 2,8,9,10
TRI: 2,10 / 2,8,9,10 / 2,5,6,8,9,10


Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Keeneland
R2: #6 Gal Aloud 12/1
R4: #10 Kristabella 12/1
R6: #3 Hewitts 10/1
R9: #1 Patena 10/1

Aqueduct
R1 31 Matthew T C 8/1
R2: #5 Mr. Vantastic 12/1
R2: #10 Titletown Tiger 12/1
R2: #11 Freudian Storm 15/1
R4: #6 Be Bullish 12/1
R5: #8 Chernobyl’s Hero 10/1
R6: #9 Marq of Love 8/1
R7: #12 Soaring By 8/1
R7: #3 Bright Illusion 8/1
R9: #6 Holdontoyourdream 8/1
R10: #6 Her Latest Flame 10/1
R10: #7 Wise Guy Kelly 8/1