Tuesday's Tip Sheet

If you’re reading this column, then you're more than likely betting on tonight’s five-game slate in the NBA. And, it’s probably safe to say that you wager on hoops everyday – let’s hope you win more often than not. My days of handicapping with the Experts are long gone, but I still analyze every game every night and attack the books, just like you.
Instead of just providing the pertinent information in tonight’s Tip Sheet, I’m going to shoot from the hip and let you know how I prepare for the card.

In order of rotation, let’s (try to) predict the winners!

Pacers at Magic: After winning four straight on the road against Western Conference, Orlando was humbled with back-to-back losses to the Celtics (90-80) and Heat (103-97) – who were the last two Eastern Conference teams to win championships. Do the Magic bounce back tonight against a comparable jump shooting team in Indiana? You would think Dwight Howard should have his way with the Pacers’ frontcourt but the big fella certainly frustrates you at times, evidenced by his last two outings. Fortunately for Howard and company, they get to face one of the worst defensive squads in the league after tough matchups against a pair of defense-first teams in Boston and Miami. Prior to the losses, Stan Van Gundy’s team had posted six games with at least 100 point per game. Orlando hasn’t lost three straight all year and the only time they suffered two in a row was in the first two games of the season. In the third game, the Magic crushed the Kings 121-103 at home as 10 ½-point favorites. We’re going to back that theory again versus a very similar club in the Pacers. The total is high but if Orlando hits their bombs from downtown, then it’s very doable.

Final Score: Orlando 118 Indiana 100

Kings at Cavaliers: It’s hard to lay double-digits in the NBA but if you want to do it, then you can make a strong case for Cleveland, especially at home. The Cavaliers are 11-4 against the spread when laying 9 ½ points or more this season. At home, Mike Brown and company are 20-0 SU and 16-4 ATS. The Kings have been decent on the road versus the number (13-10 ATS) but the team is still 3-20 SU. Sacramento is a young team and two things stick out to me about this club -- it doesn’t play any defense and trade rumors are starting to circle in the locker room. If you’re backing the Kings in this game, you’re hoping Salmons and Garcia go nuts from downtown and somehow LeBron gets hurt. This will be the third game in four nights for Sacramento, which is also trouble for a young team too. It’s a lot of wood, but Cleveland looks like the right side. You might want to watch the first 24 minutes, and possibly come in with a second-half play if the Cavs are down. It’s the Cavs or a pass for this writer.

Final Score: Cleveland 108 Sacramento 90

Nuggets at Grizzlies: I personally don’t like to think of myself as a chalk eater but I can’t argue against this favorite tonight either. Denver comes into this matchup with two solid wins and they’re facing a Memphis team that has seen the wheels fall off the wagon. The Grizzlies have lost EIGHT games in a row, both SU and ATS. The franchise just fired the coach and I ask why? It’s not Marc Iavaroni fault that team hasn’t scored over 100 points during this slump, is it? The ownership in Memphis is a joke and the talent on the court is years away from being any good – and please don’t send me comments about O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay. The Grizzlies don’t have one legit outside shooter on the team and nobody in the paint either. A few weeks ago, I would’ve told you that Oklahoma City was the worst team in the NBA but Memphis won’t crack 20 wins and they’re 11-32 right now. Sorry for the rant, now back to the matchup tonight. Did you know Denver is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite? That should give you a little more confidence with the Nuggets, who have are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five against the Grizz. The one factor that might make me pass on this matchup is the look-ahead – Denver visits New Orleans on Wednesday. And the due factor on the Grizzlies, who are way over due. Staying away from this one is your best bet.

Final Score: Denver 97 Memphis 90

Spurs at Jazz: Easily the best matchup of the night and you can tell just by looking at the opening number. The Jazz have been reeling lately (1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS) and a large part of the decline recently and overall has been the play of the defense. The team has given up 100 PPG or more in seven of the last eight and the only team that didn’t bust the century mark was Memphis (go figure). San Antonio normally likes to slow it down so that could keep the number below the 100-point mark. The Spurs have won four of five (2-3 ATS) but the wins came against the Bulls, Bobcats, Pacers and Nets. Not exactly a quality quartet. When they’ve stepped up in class, they were embarrassed by the Lakers (99-85) on Sunday. Utah isn’t Los Angeles but it is a playoff contender – when healthy. This head-to-head series has been all about the home team, who has won and covered six straight (four by double digits). The Spurs routed the Jazz 119-94 on Nov. 21 and the ‘over/under’ on that matchup was 174. Now, the number opened at 196 by Las Vegas Sports Consultants and is sitting around 194 ½ at most offshore outlets. That tells me a lot, like the ‘over’ is the play.

Final Score: Utah 104 San Antonio 99

Bobcats at Lakers: It’s probably a little much to say the Bobcats are a good team, but they’re certainly not a bad club. They’re on a decent pace to break their franchise-record of 33 wins and might have an outside shot to reach the playoffs. Still early, but you never know what can happen in the NBA, just ask Michael Redd (tough break for him and the Bucks). Tonight, Charlotte has the daunting task of facing the Lakers at Staples Center but the venue hasn’t been unkind for this visitor lately. The Bobcats are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three road battles against L.A. Also, Charlotte has also covered six of the last seven against Los Angeles, yet the number is always leaning to the Lakers, deservingly so too. The Lakers have ripped four straight (3-1 ATS) and their defense (91.8 PPG) has been good during this stretch. The total for Tuesday is 195, which is lower than all four of the past head-to-head meetings. The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight and another one seems possible, especially with Larry Brown’s slow-it-down tempo. Grabbing the points seems like the right way to go here, since the ‘Cats are 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven, with the two losses coming by two and five points. Still, L.A. should be focused tonight with a big six-game road trip on deck. Hard to argue against either team but the obvious trend is defense.

Final Score: Los Angeles 100 Charlotte 92