Sometimes it is the unknown or smaller stats that can make a difference in locating the Super Bowl winner.
Sacks
When you talk about sacks, you automatically think about the Steelers because that is what the media has thrown at you. You will probably be surprised to know that the Cardinals are +3 in net sacks this season while the Steelers are +2 in net sacks. It isn’t a huge difference but Pittsburgh and its defense are being portrayed as the team that will be able to dominate in that category.
Cardinals left tackle Mike Gandy isn't getting much attention but he's made life a lot easier for quarterback Kurt Warner. He has started 35 straight games since joining the Cardinals in 2007 and this year gave up only 6.5 sacks with just one holding penalty.
Winning the battle of the sacks usually means a Super bowl win. In the last 13 Super Bowls, the sack leader has won 12 of those games and went 8-3-2 ATS.
Edge: Even
Red zone
Red zone scoring is where games are won and lost.
Despite having the third ranked scoring offense, Arizona is ninth in red zone touchdown percentage at a 58.5 percent clip. The Steelers are 15th at 55.1 percent. The difference here is that the Cardinals scored 72 more redzone points while having 16 more possessions inside the 20-yard line.
Defensively, the Steelers were an NFL best, allowing red zone touchdowns only 33.3 percent of the time. Arizona, meanwhile, allowed touchdowns 63.6 percent of the time which was fifth worst. The point differential amounted to 124 more points allowed by Arizona.
Edge: Pittsburgh
Field Position
A shorter field makes it easier on the offense and harder on the defense. These are two of the worst punting teams in the NFL as Arizona finished 31st in net punting while Pittsburgh finished 29th. The Cardinals, however, have the edge in punt returning, averaging 7.2 yards per return compared to Pitt's 6.0 ypr average (31st in the NFL).
In Arizona's 21-14 win last season against the Steelers, Cardinals receiver Steve Breaston ran a punt back for a touchdown which broke a 7-7 tie.
Edge: Arizona
Defense Wins Championships
The last four Super Bowl winners have allowed only 15.5 points per game. The last eight champs allowed 17 ppg. Of the 42 past Super Bowls, the losing team has scored 20 points or fewer 33 times.
What about the offense? The winning team has scored 30 points or more 21 times, but it has not happened since Super Bowl XXVIII. Based on this little bit of history, it's clear a solid defense is a key contributor to any Super Bowl winner.
Edge: Pittsburgh
Passer Rating
Of the 42 winning quarterbacks in Super Bowl history, 15 of those had passer ratings better than 100 throughout their playoff run. This included both Ben Roethlisberger in 2005 (101.6) and Kurt Warner in 1999 (100.0). Looking at this season, Roethlisberger has a passer rating of 90.5 while Warner has a passer rating of 111.9.
Considering Roethlisberger had a regular season rating of 80.1 while Warner had a rating of 96.9, this current pace is not surprising. If Warner keeps it up and wins the Super Bowl, it would be the seventh-highest rating of all time. Keeping that pace will be difficult but achievable.
Edge: Arizona
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Wednesday, January 28, 2009
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