It all started on January 24, 1920, when North Carolina beat Trinity College (which four years later was change to Duke University) 36-25. Since that contest, this matchup has grown to be voted the third best rivalry in all of sports according to ESPN poll taken this decade. The intensity of the rivalry is augmented by the proximity of the two universities, roughly eight miles apart and is further enhanced with North Carolina being a public school and Duke a private university.
Just the two names of these schools evoke the joy of watching college basketball. North Carolina leads the all-time series 128-97 and annually these are among the best teams in the country. These two schools have played 123 consecutive games with one or both being in the AP Top 20 or Top 25. (It changed to the latter years ago) Duke and North Carolina have met 64 times when both teams were ranked in the Top 25, with the series tied, 32-32.
Though always a fierce rivalry, the modern era of hatred had its roots in the early 1960’s when Duke star and eventual national player of the year Art Heyman got into a fight on the court with North Carolina's Larry Brown, (that’s right, the long-time and current Charlotte Bobcats coach) which resulted in suspensions for both players. With the evolution of cable television in the mid-1980’s, these encounters were regularly broadcast to a larger audience, making coaches Dean Smith and Mike Krzyzewski even bigger stars. The Mar. 4, 2006 battle is the most viewed college basketball game ever on ESPN.
The number of legendary games are too numerous to mention, but they helped cultivate Dick Vitale’s broadcasting career and he has shown his appreciation countless times with his admiration by name-dropping each school at almost every broadcast he does.
With a couple of losses and a few closer than expected contests, North Carolina (21-2, 10-12 ATS) is no longer the most feared team in the country. Though extremely talented, the game to game intensity is not always there, granted, this won’t be an issue for this matchup. If the Tar Heels bring their A-Game, possibly only two or three teams in college basketball are capable of beating them, period.
Coach Roy Williams has two players that can drive the Cameron Crazies nuts, Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington. Hansbrough and teammate Danny Greene are trying to become the first players since Tim Duncan and Rusty LaRue marched into Durham and won four years in a row. Those Wake Forest teams did so five straight times from 1993-97. "You said it right there - it's winning," Hansbrough said. "Any time you beat them, here or there, it means a lot."
Ellington is nifty shooter and can stroke it with the best in college basketball. Duke has had their problems with guards that have two-way abilities to score, like Ellington. The Tar Heels are 9-2 but just 2-8 ATS playing with three or more days rest.
For Duke (20-3, 11-10-1 ATS) to win, they must keep up defensive intensity, like they have shown most of the year, but not recently. Three of the Blue Devils last four opponents have scored 70 or more points and they have failed to cover on each occasion. On offense, fewer forced three-point shots and more trips to the foul line would help. Duke can not afford to just have Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler do the scoring. Guards Greg Paulus, Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer must make stronger contributions and center Brian Zoubek will have to have eight points and seven rebounds to be a factor. The Blue Devils are 20-6 ATS when they score 81 or more points in a game over the last two seasons.
Swingman Gerald Henderson is the type of player that can been bothersome to the Tar Heels, being able to score as slasher or bury the jumper. Duke has similar record to UNC with rest at 11-2, however is much better against the spread at 8-4.
Sportsbook.com has listed Duke as 1.5-point home underdogs. The Dukies are 6-2 ATS off a non-cover this season and North Carolina are 5-2 ATS if their opponent has a winning home record The Tar Heels best shot every game, is imposing will on opponent. If the other teams starts playing aggressive defense, this band of Heels will sag for periods when they can’t score. Being as talented as they are, North Carolina is 7-1 and 5-3 ATS in true road games.
Duke is 14-0 at home (6-6-1 ATS) this year and is 7-4 SU in Durham against the team in the Carolina blue jerseys, but just 2-9 ATS. ESPN of course has the telecast starting at 9 Eastern and maybe they will play that unusual clip of Coach K talking about never making the eight mile trip to Chapel Hill.
Power Line – North Carolina by 1
North Carolina at Duke
The biggest rivalry in college basketball tips off at Cameron Indoor Stadium Wednesday night when third-ranked North Carolina visits sixth-ranked Duke. The Tar Heels and Blue Devils are currently tied atop the Atlantic Coast Conference standings with 7-2 records. Both schools are also chasing high seeds in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, with North Carolina currently projected as a top seed with Duke listed as a second seed according to various internet sites.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants installed North Carolina as a slight two-point road favorite over Duke, with the total listed at 155. ESPN will provide coverage of this ACC contest beginning at 9:00 p.m. ET.
North Carolina (21-2 straight up, 9-11 against the spread) enters this matchup riding a seven-game SU winning streak. The Tar Heels continued their winning ways after cruising past Virginia Saturday as a decided 25-point home favorite, 76-61. North Carolina is just 1-3 ATS its previous four games.
The Tar Heels dominated the Cavaliers on the boards, 42-29, while shooting 42 percent (28-of-67) from the field. Four starters reached double digits in scoring, led by Wayne Ellington’s 20 points and six rebounds while Tyler Hansbrough added 15 and 13. The bench only provided eight points over a combined 45 minutes.
North Carolina maintains a 10-1 SU and 6-4 ATS road record, winning those affairs by an average score of 92-71. The Tar Heels follow this contest with a road game against the Miami Hurricanes.
Duke (20-3 SU, 12-10 ATS) has alternated SU wins and losses its last five games after slipping past Miami (Fla.) Saturday in overtime as a 14-point home ‘chalk,’ 78-75. The Blue Devils are also just 1-3 ATS their last four outings.
Duke had to dig itself out of a 32-19 halftime deficit, and finished the contest by winning the rebounding battle, 39-35. The Blue Devils prevailed despite shooting just 33 percent (25-of-76) from the field, and 31 percent (12-of-39) from behind the arc. Guard Jon Scheyer paced the offense with 22 points, while Kyle Singler added 17 and 10 rebounds. The bench produced just two points over a combined 49 minutes.
Duke is 15-0 SU and 8-6 ATS on its home court, winning those matchups by an average score of 83-59. The Blue Devils follow this outing with a two-game road trip against Boston College and St. John’s.
North Carolina is 3-1 SU and ATS the previous four meetings with Duke, but this is the first encounter this season. The Tar Heels won their last trek to Cameron Indoor Stadium last March as a one-point road underdog, 76-68. These two teams will meet again in the regular season finale March 8 at North Carolina’s Dean E. Smith Center.
Neither team is reporting any players as ‘probable,’ ‘questionable’ or ‘doubtful’ for this contest.
Game of the day: North Carolina at Duke
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils (+1.5)
What's at stake: First place in the ACC, potential NCAA Tournament seeding ramifications and Tobacco Road bragging rights until the rematch on March 8.
Series history: The Heels lead it 128-97, and no current Duke senior has beaten North Carolina at Cameron Indoor Stadium - UNC has won three in a row in Durham. Last year Duke was able to win in Chapel Hill in early February with the Heels down injured point guard Ty Lawson, but Duke fell at home a month later. Carolina, which has won four of the past five meetings overall, hasn't won four straight road games in this series since 1982-85.
"I don't even bring it up," Coach Mike Krzyzewski said of the losing streak to the Winston-Salem Journal. "Kids can't identify with history. They're too young. But they can identify with ‘now.' We've got to talk to them about ‘right now.' “
Since Krzyzewski took over at Duke, only three opposing players — UNC’s Buzz Peterson and Wake Forest’s Tim Duncan and Rusty LaRue — have played at Cameron Indoor Stadium four different times and left with four victories. Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green can add their names to that list Wednesday night.
Duke lineup update: Senior point guard Greg Paulus will make his second straight start Wednesday night, according to Krzyzewski. Sophomore Nolan Smith, who started 21 of the first 22 games, will come off the bench again.
In the wake of that disaster against Clemson early last week, Paulus was inserted back into the starting lineup Saturday and responded with 18 points in an overtime win against Miami. Paulus, who was averaging less than six points and 20 minutes per game this season, logged 40 minutes in the victory, including all five in overtime.
Coach K praised his leadership, and Paulus is a better perimeter threat than Smith. Krzyzewski said Smith still will have a prominent role even though he was scoreless in seven minutes against the Hurricanes.
Another key in that Miami game was guard Jon Scheyer scoring a team-high 22 points after averaging just 9.5 points over the previous eight games. The Blue Devils are 5-0 this season when Scheyer scores 20 or more.
Forward Kyle Singler is struggling hitting just 5-of-23 from the field on Saturday. The sophomore, who leads the team in scoring and rebounding, totaled just 11 points in Duke's previous two games before Saturday. Singler did have an illness that caused him to miss some practice time nearly two weeks ago, but Coach K says Singler's health is fine.
Gerald Henderson has shared or led the Blue Devils in scoring in seven of the last nine contests and is averaging 17.7 points over his last 15 games.
Duke has not shot 50 percent from the field against North Carolina since March 15, 2003.
Heels on a roll: North Carolina has won seven games in a row and the surge is mainly due to junior Wayne Ellington. He averaged 27 points in the UNC's two wins last week and has scored at least 20 points four times during the winning streak. Only one of those seven wins has been by less than 15 points.
Green is averaging 16.8 points while going 14 of 28 from behind the 3-point arc in the past four games, while Lawson has 15 assists and no turnovers in the past two. All five Carolina starters average double figures in points. UNC leads the ACC in offense while Duke has the conference's best scoring defense.
The difference Wednesday probably will be Hansbrough (70 points the past three games), because Duke has no inside presence - the Blue Devils attempted a school-record 39 three-pointers Saturday against Miami. Of course, if Duke is hot from behind the arc, it can beat anyone.
UNC freshman center Tyler Zeller, who suffered a broken wrist in a Nov. 18 victory against Kentucky, won't be returning this week or any time soon, according to Heels coach Roy Williams said. He said the 7-foot-1 Zeller has returned to practice but needs a good 10 days to two weeks to be near ready to play.
Trends - No. 3 North Carolina at No. 5 Duke
ATS Trends
North Carolina
Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games.
Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Tar Heels are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Tar Heels are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. Atlantic Coast.
Tar Heels are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.
Duke
Blue Devils are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Blue Devils are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Blue Devils are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 Wednesday games.
Blue Devils are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Blue Devils are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
OU Trends
North Carolina
Over is 4-0 in Tar Heels last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 5-1 in Tar Heels last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 8-2 in Tar Heels last 10 Wednesday games.
Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
Over is 17-8 in Tar Heels last 25 games following a ATS loss.
Duke
Over is 5-1 in Blue Devils last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 13-3 in Blue Devils last 16 vs. Atlantic Coast.
Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 18-5 in Blue Devils last 23 home games.
Under is 21-6 in Blue Devils last 27 overall.
Under is 19-7 in Blue Devils last 26 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 5-2 in Blue Devils last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 35-17 in Blue Devils last 52 Wednesday games.
Head to Head
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Tar Heels are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Duke.
Underdog is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
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